The biggest threat to Obaseki/Shaibu ticket is the determination by the APC government to have a presence at least in one State in the South. Right now, there is none. They did it in Imo State successfully through the courts. In kano and Osun State they hedged using funny tactics. In Edo, they are about to stage daylight robbery. To them, democracy hardly counts. What matters is their permutation for 2023. If people like Ganduje, Uzodinma and Yahaya Bello are among election committee for the APC, then their intention is definitely not in the interest free and fair election.
Unless the people stand their guard and resist Federal presence and not get intimidated by military presence, only then will their vote count. On the other hand, there are fears in the Federal circles that since Oshiomole have been sacrificed, then the next person to follow is Obaseki. Now you ask: can Federal might overcome incumbency factor? On the weakness side, Godwin Obaseki is portrayed as reluctant in doling out cash. Sources say that is his biggest minus. But from close investigations, Obaseki may have perfected ways of giving out money direct to representatives/supporters in the villages thus allowing them to benefit instead of trusting “party leaders” who end up diverting the proceeds for themselves.
Investigations revealed that many of them now own houses in the villages because they tarred all the roads and constructed all the boreholes. They also say Obaseki’s weakness is ignoring “Edo people” for “Lagos people” meaning that huge contracts go to these faceless people while they—the real son of the soil—are given stipends or hand-outs. In addition Obaseki is also accused of being insensitive to outsider’s feelings, especially those sympathetic to his cause by ignoring them. “Sometimes he should give out bread for the fun of it”, they charged. His greatest threat however is the fear of conspiracy. While outside opponents may deploy Federal might against him, insiders may conspire against him and betray him before the last days of the election.
Perhaps he needs to play the game as is expected to get his coveted price by pandering to the wishes of his supporters. For his deputy Phillip Shaibu, his biggest weakness appears to be communication. He hardly communicates. An investigation carried out in his home State scored him low in this direction. His biggest threat is isolating people who otherwise would have benefitted from their “son” being in government. He hardly reaches out. As a rising politician he needs to be fluid, create the time for social meetings or send representatives if unavailable. Outside threat may not be far from declaring the Edo Election inconclusive should the Federal people be on the losing side.